Domino Theory Redux

This is a blog that I originally wrote on June 19, 2007. It was sent as a potential op-ed to a newspaper but not used at the time. I have recently seen others expound a similar idea and the principles still hold. It is possibly the greatest danger facing the democratic Western world at the beginning of 2010. Thus, I have reset the date of posting so that it appears as the first entry.


It is time to resurrect the “domino theory” in light of the fall of Gaza to Hamas. The totalitarian entities that claimed the name of “Communism” for their regimes had a fatal flaw. They claimed to be acting for the “people”, yet once people got hungry or unstimulated enough, then those regimes fell. The few remaining “communist” regimes will soon fall, and will do so even sooner if the West does not keep on supporting them by providing aid and succumbing to threats.

The fall of Arab and Muslim countries to warlike creeds of Islam is continuing unabated, with Gaza merely being the latest example. In these cases, the people overthrowing the rule of law are being inculcated with a belief that they are performing the will of a supreme being, Allah. How can one argue with the Lord? Therefore, one must do whatever is needed to bring Allah’s will to earth and achieve a Khilafah (effectively an Islamic state that will include all Muslim nations, and which will eventually be the whole world), even if this means throwing some of your erstwhile allies and co-religionists from buildings in order to create the “era of justice and Islamic rule.” (Hamas spokesman)

Many Muslims hold that the original 1300 year old Khilafah was destroyed on 3rd March 1924, when Mustafa Kemal officially abolished the Ottoman Empire in Turkey, and yet today, it is only Turkey that can be remotely considered a democracy in a country with predominantly Muslim citizens. After the demise of secular pan-Arab nationalism in the 1970’s came the rise of the theological tyranny, and even that was first limited to single branch of Islam. Iran became the first state to take jihad to the road. There is good reason for the radicals to think that they are winning, and for evidence, one only has to look at the world today.

Afghanistan cannot be built into a working nation, and the best that can be done is to prevent it being resurrected as a terrorist haven. The same holds true for Iraq, with the three religious and ethnic groups that abhor each other being constrained in the artificial boundaries drawn by Churchill to create that country. Hezbollah holds Southern Lebanon, Hamas now holds Gaza, Pakistan allows Al Quaida freedom of its border regions, the Southern Philippines has terrorist groups in large control and even Brazilian borderlands are being used for terrorist bases. The Sudanese genocide persists, and other than words, nothing is being done to prevent the massacres and ethnic cleansing of Darfur. Support for terrorist actions in Argentina, Bali, Spain, England and the USA has resulted in great success for them, and the backers of the assaults are not being held responsible.

None of this bodes well for Fatah’s next actions, and it will have to prove itself to be more militant in its next activities if it wishes to survive as an organization that has Muslim support. Even with the misguided support of the US, the EU, Russia and to a large extent, Israel itself, after Fatah’s acclaimed success in making the Gaza Strip Judenrein, it first lost an election to Hamas, and then a war. Although Abbas has finally acted against Hamas, he will have to encourage Fatah to launch more attacks against Israeli citizens in order for Fatah to recover from the damage done to its militant credentials. The weak do not survive very long in the Middle East.

However, Fatah has an uphill battle in the long term since it is battling against a religious force, and Fatah remains a largely secular organization bedeviled by corruption and clans. Although clans and family are unifying motivators, they can only partially mitigate against the fervour of those who fight for Allah alone. Thus, the West Bank of the Jordan River may be the next domino to fall.

Going back further, Pakistan became an Islamic State because the Muslims of India led by the secular Jinnah of the Muslim League wanted a separate Muslim State in 1947. Bangladesh was created for the same reason. Yet India ceding part of its territory has not given it peace on the borders with its Muslim neighbour, and some claim against India regularly appears in order to justify the perpetual hostility.

So the “domino effect” re-emerges as a theory whose timing and subject may have been misplaced in history, but not as a theory that should be discredited. It can be linked to our understanding of the 1930’s. When we studied that period as schoolchildren with the benefit of hindsight, the same questions were always “why did no one do anything? Why did no one see what was coming?”. Hitler said what he was going to do, and you can visit an innumerable number of websites that say what radical Islam wants to do. If you do not want to log on to those websites then simply listen to the President of Iran, as he orates a very nice summary of them. We cannot say that we do not know what is coming.

Negotiations cannot work because there is nothing to negotiate over. Israel may be sacrificed by the West in the near future but it will not sate the desire for a Khilafah, and as the famous quote of Pastor Martin Niemöller said “first they came for the Jews and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew and finally they came for me ………and there was no one left to speak out for me.”

Each fall of a region to a more radical force will encourage those who believe that such success is a divine reward. Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons in the immediate short term will allow the conquests to occur at a faster rate because Iran’s rulers will have no fear in using them. After all, if Allah did not want Iran to use the weapons for his cause, then he would not have provided them. If Iran wins, then more of the world will adopt their Islamic ways, and if it loses, then heaven will be crowded with a lot of martyrs looking for virgins. Either way they think they win, and so there is no possible deterrent. And either way, there will be a lot of dead people.

Can we do anything that will really matter? It is hard to say, but let’s try. Demand action of our leaders and speak to MPs and local councilors. Ask that your country keeps doing all that it can to fight terrorism here and abroad. Ask that your representatives act in any manner that will prevent Iran going nuclear. Ask them if they think Iran needs nuclear facilities when it has the world's second largest reserves of conventional crude oil. Ask that there should be no funding for, or attendances by our representatives at, events with groups espousing support of terrorist groups, however much they may sympathsize with the ultimate cause. Ask that universities should not be renting out rooms for days of hatred.

Do not be afraid to state the obvious when confronted with political correctness that allows support of terrorism, to understand it, and that permits it to fester. That sort of political correctness does nothing to make society more encompassing of different genders, ethnicities or religions.

Each of us individually may feel helpless and powerless, and it may already be too late because of the impending Iranian nuclear acquisition, but if we do nothing, then the dominoes will certainly continue to fall.